Existing Home Sales Fall To 8-Month Low. So what else is new!!!

The song remains the same. We are undulating along the economic winds. Existing Homes Sales seem to shadow the economy. The trend, which is usually are friend, is the way to follow along to make economic sense out of all this.  You would think?

Shadow Inventory slowed during the Banker's Robo Signing mess and less inventory was released to the public for sale. The January 2011 low of 7.5 months was a result of that mess. Now, 6 months later we are at 9.5 months of inventory, their are other factors in-vowed, spring selling season for one, tightness in the mortgage market another and on and on.  Now to the meat of this report.

Home resales slipped for the 3rd straight month, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Existing Home Sales posted a 1 percent drop from May as the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 4.77 million units. It's the monthly report's lowest reading since November 2010.
The report also showed the national supply of homes for sales rising to 9.5 months -- also its highest reading since November 2010. Home Supply is the amount of time it would take to exhaust the complete home inventory at the current pace of sales.

June's Existing Home Sales data would have been stronger if not for a high contract cancellation rate. As compared to May's 4 percent rate, June's cancellation rate was 16 percent; an elevated figure that "stands out in contrast" to what's typical, according to the REALTOR® trade group.

By region, home resale activity varied:

• Northeast : -5.2% from May 
• South :+0.5% from May
• Midwest : +1.0% from May
• West : -1.7% from May

This disparity from region-to-region highlights an important housing market concept. Namely, that all real estate is local. Because just as the Existing Home Sales varies on a regional level, it varies on a state-wide level, too.

What's true for California housing is not necessarily what's true for New York housing, for example. Each of the 50 states has its own trends, and within those 50 states, there are thousands of cities and neighborhoods, each with their own trends, too.

The "national housing market" doesn't exist, so national data is rendered somewhat useless.
For data in New York City or your local market, talk to your real estate agent.

Anybody hear a phone ring?

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Housing Starts Surge 9 Percent; Signal A Strong Fall Season

Builders are busy once again.

According to the Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 453,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in June -- a 9 percent spike from the month prior and the highest reading in 3 seasons.

A "Housing Start" is defined as a home breaking ground on new construction.

June's reading is largest one-month jump since June 2009. The reading surprised Wall Street despite that the Homebuilder Confidence survey may have foreshadowed the results.

Monday, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builders are more confident about the future of the new home sales market, and forecast a large increase in sales over the next 6 months.

For buyers of new construction, the news is mixed. Rising confidence may mean that builders in Queens and Long Island are less willing to negotiate on upgrades and/or price, but rising construction levels add inventory to an already fragile market.
Adding to the nation's home supply without a corresponding increase in buyer demand shifts negotiation leverage away from builders.

The Census Bureau also reported on Building Permits.
In June, permits for single-family homes rose by 1,000 units nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This, too, bodes well for housing because 89 percent of homes with permits start construction within 60 days.

Momentum should carry forward into fall.

If you're buying new construction in New York , ask your real estate agent about local home supply, and how the market is trending. With mortgage rates low and the fall buying season approaching, you may find some of your best deals in the next few weeks.

Always remember, all Real Estate is local and all housing statistics are influenced by there locality.
So happy house hunting.

By the way, you can now follow me on a new Blog I have started called THE NY REAL ESTATE NURSE.
WWW.THENYREALESTATENURSE.COM

Till next time

Bob Ritchie

The New York Real Estate Nurse