Housing And Mortgage : The Experts Make Their 2012 Predictions

My Crystal Ball tells me that housing will get better in 2012. It will be good for Buyers. I hope I'm not going out on a limb saying this. Will I lose a limb if my prediction is wrong? Buyers have a leg up.

Being an amateur economist, I could use statistical data and ruin my prediction. We could see the Fed. to the rescue this year and drive mortgage rate lower, and we could see the banks get some type of incentive from Pres.Obama to lend.

What we need are jobs and higher salaries.

Thank God its a Crystal Ball and not some pure rational qualitative and quantitative design. But its belongs to me and nobody else.

As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.

Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who's right and who's wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals "experts" with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It's tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some "on-the-record" predictions for 2012 :

• Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
• Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker) 
• Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (ays the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers in Queens, New York and nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a "prediction" from fact at times.

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we're inclined to believe what we read and hear.
This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future -- whether it's housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else -- are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.

Predictions are guesses about what might come next -- nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today's market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions in and around Queens and nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates "with points" price in the 3s.

What 2012 has in store for us, we just can't know. But I will say this: Buy, Buy,and Buy.
Its a good time.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

What Will The Debt Ceiling Agreement Do To Mortgage Rates?

The United States is projected to reach its legal $14.294 trillion debt limit today. The limit was set by Congress February 12, 2010. The U.S. Treasury may not issue new debt beyond the debt ceiling.
Since April 2011, Congress has debated ways to remain below the nation's $14.292 trillion borrowing limit. The debate commenced with the passage of the 2011 U.S. Federal Budget which featured a $1.645 trillion deficit.
This multi-trillion dollar deficit ensured that the debt ceiling would be touched at some point during the current fiscal year.
That date was May 16. It took an intervention from the Treasury Secretary to temporarily extend the limits; an "extraordinary measure" meant to keep the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt.
With additional room to borrow, then, the U.S. Treasury's new debt ceiling date was moved to August 2. Congress has been debating the federal budget since mid-May with the dual-goal of (1) Remaining below the federal debt limit, and (2) Creating a budgetary surplus for the future.
An agreement is expected today.
For home buyers and rate shoppers in new york city , this is an important development. The debt ceiling agreement will influence mortgage markets and, as a result, require amendments to home affordability calculations. As mortgage rates change, your purchasing power does, too.
Unfortunately, we don't know in which direction mortgage rates will go.
Since the prospect of a deal was first hinted Friday, mortgage rates have been improving. Conforming, 30-year fixed rates are down nearly 0.250 percent, lowering a $150,000 mortgage payment by $22 per month.
The final deal terms of a deal, however, could lead rates higher.
As always, the safest play is to lock your mortgage rate if you are comfortable with its proposed payment. Yes, mortgage rates may move lower in the future but, then again, maybe they'll move higher.

Congress remains a mess, the bickering continues. Whats a country to do? VOTE!!!

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse