Will Home Values Rise This Year?

Noooooooooooooooooo!!! Home sales based on median price will show a decline in 2012. This will be the national trend, there will be a location here and there that will see upside off their lows.

ALL MARKETS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO COME OFF THEIR LOWS.

My crystal ball tells me their are to many headwinds in the countries macroeconomics to boost prices. Their are to many distressed properties on the market that nobody wants. When they are bought they will bring down comparable's with them.  The looming shadow inventory will have to be released at some point. Absorption of the units will take time.

Without the help of  government intervention, and the private sector having little incentive to get involved, at best we will see housing numbers remain the same this year. Still a good time to buy.

Will your home gain value over the next 12 months? Nobody can know for sure, but should recent housing trends continue undulating along the bottom, prices will be flat.

The housing economy has suffered since 2007, knocking home values down nearly 20% nationwide. And while some areas have fared better as compared to others but, in general, home values are down.

Mortgage rates are down, too, and that's good news for buyers in New York. The combination of low rates and low prices has led home affordability to an all-time high. As you'll hear in this 4-minute interview with NBC's The Today Show, carrying a mortgage costs 25% less per month as compared to just 3 years ago.

Some other notes from the interview include :

• There are more buyers out looking for homes today, which leads to more sales
• The housing market is expected to get gradually better, month-by-month, in 2012
• Foreclosures will continue to be a big part of the housing market

With housing supplies shrinking, buyers throughout New York may find their best "deals" today -- before the Spring Buying Season begins in February.

However, we can't forget that housing markets are local -- not national. Each town and neighborhood has its own market drivers and prices where you live may have already started to climb.

For accurate, up-to-date data on the housing market, talk with a local real estate agent.

My phone is ringing of the hook. Anybody remember those old phones?

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Housing And Mortgage : The Experts Make Their 2012 Predictions

My Crystal Ball tells me that housing will get better in 2012. It will be good for Buyers. I hope I'm not going out on a limb saying this. Will I lose a limb if my prediction is wrong? Buyers have a leg up.

Being an amateur economist, I could use statistical data and ruin my prediction. We could see the Fed. to the rescue this year and drive mortgage rate lower, and we could see the banks get some type of incentive from Pres.Obama to lend.

What we need are jobs and higher salaries.

Thank God its a Crystal Ball and not some pure rational qualitative and quantitative design. But its belongs to me and nobody else.

As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.

Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who's right and who's wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals "experts" with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It's tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some "on-the-record" predictions for 2012 :

• Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
• Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker) 
• Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (ays the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers in Queens, New York and nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a "prediction" from fact at times.

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we're inclined to believe what we read and hear.
This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future -- whether it's housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else -- are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.

Predictions are guesses about what might come next -- nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today's market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions in and around Queens and nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates "with points" price in the 3s.

What 2012 has in store for us, we just can't know. But I will say this: Buy, Buy,and Buy.
Its a good time.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Case-Shiller Index : 85% Of Tracked Cities Showed Home Price Improvement In July

Standard  & Poor's released its monthly Case-Shiller Index this week. The Case-Shiller Index measures home price changes from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in 20 select U.S. cities. It also reports a "national" index; a composite of the values in said cities.

The most recent Case-Shiller Index shows a 0.9% rise in home values from June to July 2011. Home values were higher in 17 of the 20 tracked cities. Only Phoenix and Las Vegas fell. Denver was flat.

Also noteworthy is that, of all of the Case-Shiller cities, Detroit posted the strongest 1-year, home price improvement. As compared to July 2010, home values are higher by 1.2 percent in Detroit. This bests even Washington, D.C. -- long-believed to be the nation's healthiest housing market.

That said, we should be careful of the conclusions we draw from July's Case-Shiller Index -- both on a city-wide level, and on a national level. This is because, as with most "home price trackers", the Case-Shiller Index has flaws in its methodology.

The first Case-Shiller Index flaw is its limited scope. Although it's purported to be a "national housing index", the data that comprises the monthly Case-Schiller Index is sourced from just 20 U.S. cities. These 20 cities represent just 0.6% of the more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide.

The second Case Shiller Index flaw is that the sample sets include single-family, detached homes only. Condominiums, multi-unit homes, and new construction are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index.

In some markets, "excluded" home types outnumber included ones.

And, lastly, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed in that it takes 2 months to gather data and report it. It's nearly October, yet we're still discussing the real estate market as it existing in July. For buyers and sellers in the New York City area, July in ancient history.

The Case-Shiller Index is useful for tracking long-term trends in housing, but does little to help individuals with their choices to buy or sell a home. For relevant, recent real estate data, talk to a real estate agent in your market. Real estate agents are often the best source for real-time, real estate data.

Location is the key. Know your real estate market. Call a Realtor.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Home Values Rose In June 2011

Has housing turned the corner for good?
Not really?

The June 2011 Case-Shiller Index reading posted strong numbers across the board, with each of the index's 20 tracked markets showing home price improvement from May.

Some markets -- Chicago and Minneapolis -- rose as much as 3.2 percent.
The rise in values is nothing about which to get overly excited, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what multiple data sets have already shown about the summer housing market; that it was stronger than the spring market, and that a recovery is underway, but occurring locally, at different rates.

For example, the June 2011 Case-Shiller Index shows the following :

• Denver, Dallas, Washington D.C., and the "California Cities" bottomed in 2009. Each has shown steady improvement since.
• None of the Case-Shiller cities showed negative growth between May and June 2011.
• 12 of Case-Shiller's tracked cities have improved over 3 consecutive months.

In isolation, these statistics appear promising, but it's important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index is a backward-looking data set, focusing on just a portion of the national housing economy.

As an illustration, the Case-Shiller Index's "national report" only includes data from 20 cities nationwide. They're not the 20 biggest cities, either. Smaller metropolitan areas such as Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#51) are included.

Larger ones including Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5) and San Jose (#10) are not.
In addition, the Case-Shiller index fails to track sales of condominiums, multi-unit homes and new construction.

In some markets, including Chicago, these excluded home type can represent a large share of the overall market.
The Case-Shiller Index is a fine data set for policy makers and economists. It describes the broader housing market and shows long-term trends. For the individual home buyer in the New York City and Long Island area , it's much less useful. More than "broad data", you want focused data that's current and relevant.

The best place for data like that is a local real estate agent.

Keeping everything local.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse