Case-Shiller Index : 85% Of Tracked Cities Showed Home Price Improvement In July

Standard  & Poor's released its monthly Case-Shiller Index this week. The Case-Shiller Index measures home price changes from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in 20 select U.S. cities. It also reports a "national" index; a composite of the values in said cities.

The most recent Case-Shiller Index shows a 0.9% rise in home values from June to July 2011. Home values were higher in 17 of the 20 tracked cities. Only Phoenix and Las Vegas fell. Denver was flat.

Also noteworthy is that, of all of the Case-Shiller cities, Detroit posted the strongest 1-year, home price improvement. As compared to July 2010, home values are higher by 1.2 percent in Detroit. This bests even Washington, D.C. -- long-believed to be the nation's healthiest housing market.

That said, we should be careful of the conclusions we draw from July's Case-Shiller Index -- both on a city-wide level, and on a national level. This is because, as with most "home price trackers", the Case-Shiller Index has flaws in its methodology.

The first Case-Shiller Index flaw is its limited scope. Although it's purported to be a "national housing index", the data that comprises the monthly Case-Schiller Index is sourced from just 20 U.S. cities. These 20 cities represent just 0.6% of the more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide.

The second Case Shiller Index flaw is that the sample sets include single-family, detached homes only. Condominiums, multi-unit homes, and new construction are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index.

In some markets, "excluded" home types outnumber included ones.

And, lastly, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed in that it takes 2 months to gather data and report it. It's nearly October, yet we're still discussing the real estate market as it existing in July. For buyers and sellers in the New York City area, July in ancient history.

The Case-Shiller Index is useful for tracking long-term trends in housing, but does little to help individuals with their choices to buy or sell a home. For relevant, recent real estate data, talk to a real estate agent in your market. Real estate agents are often the best source for real-time, real estate data.

Location is the key. Know your real estate market. Call a Realtor.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

New Home Sales Figures Better Than Reported

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slid for the fourth straight month in August, easing 2 percent from July. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 295,000 newly-built homes last month.

August marked the lowest new home sales tally since February. News outlets are jumping on the story, with at least one calling it a "blow" to the housing market.

That's an unfair assessment.

It's tough for the new home market to tally big sales numbers when the number of homes for sale is dwindling and, in August, that's exactly what we saw. The number of new homes for sale nationwide fell to 162,000 last month. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993, the first year the Census Bureau tracked such data.

In other words, using New Home Sales as a housing market gauge may be misleading. A better metric may be new home supply.

In August, new home supply edged 0.1 months higher to 6.6 months. This means that, at today's sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold out in 6.6 months.

It's the second-fastest reading in 2 years.

The new home market represents an interesting opportunity for home buyers in the New York City area. Builders are facing new competition from bank-owned homes and foreclosures, dragging builder confidence to all-time lows. Furthermore, builders have low expectations for the next 6 months.

As a buyer, you can use this to your advantage. Builders may be more willing to negotiate on price and finishes versus this time last year. You may find a good "deal" in new construction once you go in search of it.

Builders are eager to negotiate to move their inventory. Go make an offer.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Existing Home Sales Jump; Home Supplies Falling

Are home resales rebounding? Just trending?

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August from the month prior, and 19 percent as compared to August of last year.

"Existing homes" are homes that are previously owned; ones that cannot be considered new construction.

A total of 5.0 million existing homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is slightly better than the 12-month home resale average, a statistic partially powered by "distressed sales". Distressed homes -- homes in various stages of foreclosures or sold via short sale -- accounted for 31 percent of all home resales in August.

At the current rate of sales, the national home resale inventory would be depleted in 8.5 months. This pace is a full month faster as compared to July, and the lowest home supply reading since March 2011.
Other noteworthy facts from the August Existing Home Sales report :

• There are currently 3.58 million existing homes for sale nationwide
• 29 percent of home buyers paid cash in August
• Real estate investors bought 22% of homes in August, up from 18% in July

Home prices throughout the New York City area are based on Supply and Demand and, at least right now, it appears the supply is dropping. Furthermore, with mortgage rates at all-time lows, it's reasonable to expect demand to pick up. These two conditions should lead home prices higher.

If you're shopping for a home right now, recognize the trends and work them to your advantage. It may be "cheapest" to buy now. Contact your local Realtor.

2009 was a great year to buy a home. 2011 is a great time to buy a home. Buy a home now and lock in a mortgage rate at 4% and you will never be disappointed. You will not say to yourself  " I should of waited".

This is the year, when you look back, you will say YES.

Till next time.

The New York real Estate Nurse

How To Clean Your Home Gutters

With the change of season, it's a good time to make sure your home's gutter system is clean and well-functioning.

Home gutters serve a specific purpose. By capturing and funneling rainwater away from a home "footprint" water damage to walls, windows and roofing can be minimized. A well-functioning gutter system can keep a home's basement from flooding, and a foundation safe from long-term structural damage.
Damaged or dirty gutters can lead to major home damage that may not be covered by insurance.

For homeowners in th New York City area, keeping clean gutters is essential. Luckily, with the right tools, gutter maintenance can be a do-it-yourself job.

First, gather the necessary tools. You'll need a ladder for climbing; a bucket for holding debris; a hose for flushing your gutters; and a small, scooping tool such as a trowel.
Next, carefully climb to your gutter. Using your hands, scoop large debris and place it in the bucket. Use the trowel to get to hard-to-reach places and for removing sticks and leaves. For safety, do not stretch to reach the next section of gutter.

After clearing the first gutter portion, step down from the ladder, move it to the next section of gutter, and repeat. Do this until all gutter sections are free from debris.

Next, find a garden hose with a spray attachment. Carry the hose up the ladder with you to the highest point of your gutter system -- usually opposite the downspout. With the water supply on, spray water into the gutter to flush the remaining debris.

If the water fails to drain, there's likely a clog in the downspout. Using a screwdriver, separate the downspout, find the clog, and remove it. Or, if you find standing water, adjust the slope of your gutter by removing the gutter hangers, fixing the slope, and re-attaching the hangers.

A gutter system should slope roughly one-quarter inch for every 10 feet of gutter.

Gutter maintenance is a twice a year task that you can do yourself. However, if you're uncomfortable on a ladder, or prefer to hire professionals, that's okay, too. As with everything in home maintenance, it's safety first.

Maintain your home and save money.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Building Permits Rising Nationwide; Housing Starts To Follow

Single-Family Housing Starts fell for the second consecutive month, dropping to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 417,000 units in August 2011.

A "Housing Start" is defined as a home on which ground has broken.

We shouldn't put too much faith in the findings, however. Although housing starts were lower last month, as noted by the Census Bureau, the margin of error in the August Housing Starts report exceeded the actual result.

From the official report:

• August's Published Results : -1.4% from July 
• August's Margin of Error : ±10.3% from July

Therefore, August's Housing Starts may have actually increased by up to +8.9% from July, or it may have dropped as much as -11.7%. We won't know for sure until several months from now, after the Census Bureau has gathered more housing data.

One thing is certain, though -- the long-term trend in Housing Starts is "flat". There has been little change in new home construction since last summer.

The same can't be said for Building Permits.

Considered a pre-cursor to Housing Starts, Single Family Building Permits climbed 2.5 percent with a minuscule Margin of Error of ±0.9 percent.

As is common in real estate, results varied by region:

• Northeast : +3.3 percent from July
• Midwest : +6.3 percent from July
• South : -1.3 percent from July
• West : +11.3 percent from July

When permits are issued, 86 percent of them begin break ground within 60 days. Therefore, expect Housing Starts and new home inventory to rebound in the months ahead.

For now, housing remains steady. And, with mortgage rates at all-time lows, homebuyer purchasing power in an around the New York City area is higher than it's been in history. If you're in the process of shopping for a home, talk with your lender to plan your mortgage budget. Call your Realtor and plan your home purchase.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (September 21, 2011 Edition)

Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was 7-3 -- the second straight meeting at which the FOMC adjourned with as many 3 dissenters. Prior to that last meeting, there hadn't been 3 FOMC dissenters since 1992.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented a dour outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in August:

1. Economic growth "remains slow"
2. Unemployment rates "remain elevated"
3. The housing sector "remains depressed"

The Fed also said that there are "significant downside risks" to the economic outlook, tied to strains in the global financial markets.
 
The news wasn't all bad, however.

The Fed noted that business investment in equipment and software continues to expand, and that inflationary pressures on the economy appear to have stabilized. The Fed then re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent "at least until mid-2013". This means that Prime Rate -- the rate to which credit card rates and lines of credits are often tied -- should remain unchanged at 3.250 for at least another 2 years.
Furthermore, as expected, the Federal Reserve launched a market stimulus plan aimed at lowering long-term interest rates. The Fed will sell $400 billion in Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and use the proceeds to buy the same with maturity between 6 and 30 years.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been positive this afternoon. Mortgage rates in New York are improving, but note that Wall Street sentiment can shift quickly -- especially in a market that's as uncertain as this one.

If today's mortgage rates and payments fit your household budget, consider locking in a rate. Rates can change swiftly.

The FOMC's next meeting is a 2-day affair, scheduled for November 1-2, 2011.
They are out of bullets, what's a country to do.  More QE? Maybe its time to bite the bullet and tighten everybody's belt. Let the markets adjust to the new numbers and start over at par. Then maybe we will see some economic growth.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Homebuilder Confidence Stays Flat

Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.

Myself, I am late with the news. I am OK with the trend.

With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder's Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index's 12-month average.

The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It's the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder's business.

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today? 
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September's composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.

The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006.

With homebuilder confidence low -- and stagnant -- buyers of new homes in the New York City area should remain alert for "deals". Builders are more likely to offer free upgrades and other concessions to incoming buyers. The availability of such deals may increase as the seasons change and as the year comes to a close.
Low mortgage rates are making new homes attractive, too. Last week, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels of all-time. As compared to just 8 weeks ago, 30-year fixed rate mortgage payments are lower by 5 percent at all loan sizes, down $27 per month per $100,000 borrowed.

Things are getting cheaper, America is headed for stagflation. Anybody remember the 70's. What a decade!
The world is mired in debt and defaults could happen. Nobody could pay out on all the Swaps. Financial disaster all over again.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Improve Your Home's Air Quality

How healthy is the air in your home?

Just ask the Real Estate Nurse!

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, a common class of airborne toxins known as Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) is ruining indoor air quality, and causing some U.S. homeowners to become dizzy, asthmatic, and ill.

VOCs are gases emitted by certain, common household products, including paint and paint strippers, cleaning supplies, and copiers and printers -- even when the aforementioned products aren't in use. You can find VOCs "everywhere" because organic chemical compounds have become essential in everyday life.

VOCs are what give cars that "new car smell". They're also the cause of "Sick Building Syndrome".
As a homeowner in New York City area , VOCs in your home can make you sick. Therefore, the EPA advises homeowners to take the following steps to reduce VOC levels in their respective homes and improve and home air quality.

1. When using VOC-emitting products such as paints and paint thinners, keep a well-ventilated home.
2. Avoid purchasing cleaning supplies or paint in bulk. Buy only what you need.
3. Never mix household cleansers. It may yield unintended results.
4. Throw out "dry cleaning bags" as soon as possible. Most dry cleaning makes use of harmful VOCs.
5. Do not burn tobacco products inside your home. 

There are a half-dozen other recommendations, too. They're listed on the EPA website.
You can't remove VOCs from your home, but you can minimize their negative effects. And keep your household as healthy as possible.

I want you to feel better while living healthy in your home.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Annual Foreclosure Filings Down For 11th Straight Month

On an annual basis, foreclosure filings fell last month. As compared to August 2010, last month's foreclosure filings dropped 33 percent. "Foreclosure filing" is a catch-all term, comprising default notices; scheduled auctions; and bank repossessions.

The study was published by foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac and this month's report reveals a slowing rate of foreclosure within each of the Top 10 most foreclosure-heavy states.

All news is not good, however.

On a monthly basis, foreclosure filings spiked, led by a surge in default notices. Default notices made their biggest one-month jump since August 2007 on the way to a 9-month high last month. Default notices are the first step in the foreclosure process so this jump may foreshadow a large number of bank repossessions as foreclosures "make their way through the process".

It's also noteworthy that just 6 states housed half of the nation's bank repossessions last month.

• California : 18 percent of bank repossessions
• Florida : 8 percent of bank repossessions
• Georgia : 7 percent of bank repossessions
• Michigan : 6 percent of bank repossessions
• Texas : 6 percent of bank repossessions
• Arizona : 6 percent of bank repossessions

As a home buyer in the New York City area , foreclosures can save you money. The National Association of REALTORS® reports that distressed homes sell with typical discounts of 20 percent versus comparable, non-distressed homes. However, buying a home from a bank is a different process from buying a home from a "person". Contract negotiations are different and it can take months to finally close on a foreclosed home.
If you're buying a foreclosed, therefore, enlist the help of a professional real estate agent. Real estate agents can help you navigate the sometimes-complicated world of foreclosures, and help you come out ahead.

I have all the the distressed properties that are available in the 5 Boroughs and Long Island. I can tell you first hand that the buying process on these listings is not always smooth sailing. You need a Real Estate Agent to negotiate for you.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Capitalize On Low Interest Rates In Overlooked Places

It's no secret. Rates are low right now. And, it's not just mortgage rates, either -- all types of rates are scraping rock-bottom. Borrowing rates, lending rates and savings rates are at or near their all-time lowest levels.

As a homeowner in New York City , one way to capitalize on today's low rates is to apply to refinance your home. But there are other ways to take advantage, too.

In this 5-minute piece from NBC's The Today Show, you'll learn of a half-dozen ways to exploit the current rate environment, including:

• Refinance a car loan from a high rate to a low rate, for cheap, in an hour
• Balance transfers between credit cards with teaser rates lasting up to 20 months
• Move some savings to an "online" bank where savings rates are higher

The interview's theme is to examine both where you're spending and saving your money, and make sure you're doing what's best for your budget.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has pledged to hold the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000% until at least 2013. So long as the Fed Funds Rate is low, there will be places you can save.

Good luck in saving your hard earned money

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Starting To Adjust Higher

For the first time in a year, homeowners with adjusting mortgages are facing rising mortgage rates. The interest rate by which many adjustable-rate mortgages adjust has climbed to its highest level since September 2010, and looks poised to reach higher.

This is because of the formula by which adjustable-rate mortgage adjust.

Each year, when due for a reset, an adjustable-rate mortgage's rate changes to the sum of fixed number known as a "margin", and a variable figure known as an "index". For conforming mortgages, the margin is typically set to 2.250 percent; the index is often equal to the 12-month LIBOR.

LIBOR stands for the London Interbank Offered Rate. It's a rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
Expressed as a math formula, the adjusting ARM formula reads :

(New Mortgage Rate) = (2.250 percent) + (Current 1-Year LIBOR)

LIBOR has been rising lately, which explains why ARMs are adjusting higher as compared to earlier this year. There has been considerable stress on the financial sector and LIBOR reflects the uncertainty that bankers feel for the sector.

LIBOR last spiked after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 amid global financial fears. Analysts expect LIBOR to rise into 2012 because of bubbling concerns in the Eurozone.

Despite LIBOR's rise, though, most adjusting, conforming ARMs are still resetting near 3 percent. For this reason, homeowners with ARMs in New York may want to consider letting their respective loans adjust with the market.

This is because an adjusting mortgage rate near 3 percent may be better than what's available with a "fresh loan" -- even as 5-year ARMs rates make new all-time lows. Unlike a straight refinance to lower rates, an adjusting loan requires no closing costs, requires no appraisal, and requires no verifications.

So, if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage that's set to reset this season, don't rush to refinance it. Talk to your lender and uncover your options. Your best course of action may be to stay the course.

Regardless of what kind of mortgage loan you have, always maintain an eye on rates. You never know in today's
crazy economy what is going to happen. Also Congress is crazy too. Remember to vote.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Everyone Lives In A Flood Zone. Are You Covered?

Everyone lives in a flood zone.

Flooding is the top-ranked natural disaster in the United States, with a dozen potential causes ranging from heavy rains, tropical storms and hurricanes to new housing developments and rain after fire. Floods can occur in all 50 states and, when they do, they leave massive damage in their wake.

Flood damages exceed $2.7 billion annually.

As a homeowner, you carry homeowners insurance to protect against theft and loss. Typical homeowners insurance, however, excludes damages from flooding. Homeowners in New York City area , should make sure to have a separate flood insurance policy. And once that policy is in place, there are other steps you should follow, too.

First, make a log of your possessions, either on paper or by video. In your log, include everything that you own of value. Next, if you own jewelry, have it appraised and store the appraisal; if you own appliances, log the serial numbers and attach original receipts.

Then, buy a safe-deposit box at a bank, for example, and store your possession log.

All of this information matters because, in the event you need to make a claim, you'll have an easier time dealing with the insurance adjuster. It's hard to prove possession of items that have been washed away by flood waters, after all.

You'll also want to share this list with your insurance agent in advance so your policy is made with the proper amount of coverage.

Floods can strike anywhere and, as many people learn the hard way, standard homeowners insurance does not include flood coverage. If you're without flood coverage, talk to your insurance agent about adding a flood policy.

Because many policies don't take effect until 30 days from purchase, this is one form of insurance you'll want to buy in advance.

The New York City area has had a lot of rain already from storms, flooding has caused much damage already.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

How To Rotate Your Bedroom Mattress

With the change of seasons, it's a good reminder to rotate your bedrooms' mattresses. Most brand manufacturers recommend a semi-annual "flip", at least.

Mattress manufacturers recommend a mattress flip because, over time, mattresses can wear unevenly, the result of sleeping in the same position each night, or applying too much continuous pressure to one area of the mattress.

By the time your mattress shows signs of "sag" or imprints, it's often too late.

Rotating a mattress is exactly what it sounds like; it's pivoting your mattress on its axis -- either horizontal, vertical, or both -- and replacing it on your bed frame.

Rotating your mattress regularly will extend its useful life.

If you have a twin mattress, you may be able to flip it by yourself. If your mattress is a full-size or larger, though, follow these steps to minimize injury. Mattresses can be heavy.

1. Find a partner to help you
2. Slide the mattress out from the headboard by 3 feet
3. Rotate the mattress one-quarter spin so that's its "across" the bed
4. Lift the mattress from the headboard toward the foot, standing it upright and turning it over completely
5. Make another one-turn to the mattress
6. Slide the mattress back to the headboard

With these steps, you will have flipped your mattress over both of its axes.

Mattresses are among the most used pieces of furniture in any home, and often the most ignored piece of furniture, too. To get a longer, useful life from your mattresses, perform a mattress rotation at least twice yearly.

It's not always about the house, smaller things cost.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

As Jobs Tally Fades, Mortgage Rates Fall

The U.S. economy is no longer adding new jobs.

Last Friday, in its monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added exactly zero new jobs in August as the national Unemployment Rate held steady at 9.1 percent.
Despite the "zero" reading, the jobs figures were in the red. This is because the BLS issued revisions to its June and July figures that adjusted the two months of data down by 58,000 jobs.

Economists had expected a monthly reading of +75,000. Their estimates missed.
The weaker-than-expected jobs data fueled a stock market sell-off that pushed stocks down 2.5% and spurred a bond market rally.

Mortgage bonds -- the securities on which mortgage rates in new york city are based -- improved Friday ahead of Labor Day Weekend, and carried that momentum into Monday. While the U.S. markets were closed, global investors snapped up "safe" assets in fear of a second wave of financial crises. Already this year, markets have grappled with sovereign debt concerns in Greece and Portugal.

Now, Italy is facing similar international scrutiny, forcing markets to question the health of the Eurozone.
Concerns like these tend to benefit home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers and that's exactly what we're seeing.

Mortgage rates are falling this week. Rates may reverse quickly, however.

Later this month, the Federal Reserve and White House are each expected to add stimulus to the U.S. economy. If they do, it may push investors back into risky assets including equities at the expense of safe securities. This would spark a bond market sell-off and send rates higher.

Possibly by a lot.

Therefore, if you're currently looking for home or comparing rates between lenders, consider executing sooner rather than later. Mortgage rates are low today, but low rates may not last. And when rates reverse higher, it will likely happen fast.

Lock, Lock, Lock as fast as you can, that's the end. Not how low can we go.

Till next time


The New York Real Estate Nurse

Home Values Rose In June 2011

Has housing turned the corner for good?
Not really?

The June 2011 Case-Shiller Index reading posted strong numbers across the board, with each of the index's 20 tracked markets showing home price improvement from May.

Some markets -- Chicago and Minneapolis -- rose as much as 3.2 percent.
The rise in values is nothing about which to get overly excited, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what multiple data sets have already shown about the summer housing market; that it was stronger than the spring market, and that a recovery is underway, but occurring locally, at different rates.

For example, the June 2011 Case-Shiller Index shows the following :

• Denver, Dallas, Washington D.C., and the "California Cities" bottomed in 2009. Each has shown steady improvement since.
• None of the Case-Shiller cities showed negative growth between May and June 2011.
• 12 of Case-Shiller's tracked cities have improved over 3 consecutive months.

In isolation, these statistics appear promising, but it's important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index is a backward-looking data set, focusing on just a portion of the national housing economy.

As an illustration, the Case-Shiller Index's "national report" only includes data from 20 cities nationwide. They're not the 20 biggest cities, either. Smaller metropolitan areas such as Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#51) are included.

Larger ones including Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5) and San Jose (#10) are not.
In addition, the Case-Shiller index fails to track sales of condominiums, multi-unit homes and new construction.

In some markets, including Chicago, these excluded home type can represent a large share of the overall market.
The Case-Shiller Index is a fine data set for policy makers and economists. It describes the broader housing market and shows long-term trends. For the individual home buyer in the New York City and Long Island area , it's much less useful. More than "broad data", you want focused data that's current and relevant.

The best place for data like that is a local real estate agent.

Keeping everything local.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse