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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

New Home Supplies Fall To An 18-Month Low

New Home Supply 2009-2011


The trend may be down, but nothing in the Macro picture has changed. We continue to undulate along the bottom of the housing market. Great time to buy a home. That's the bottom line.

If you plan to buy of new construction in New York sometime in 2012, don't expect today's low prices. Like everything in housing of late, the market for newly-built homes appears to be stabilizing and, in some markets, improving.

As foreshadowed by this month's strong Homebuilder Confidence survey, the Census Bureau reports that the number of new homes sold rose to a 6-month high in October, climbing to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.

A "new home" is a home that is considered new construction. It's the opposite of an "existing home".

Home buyers are comparing new construction to home resales and liking what they see. At the current sales pace, the nation's complete new home inventory would now be depleted in just 6.3 months. This marks the lowest home supply since April 2010 -- the last month of the last year's federal homebuyer tax credit.

By building only to meet new demand, builders are keeping home supplies in check, and home prices stable. They've also found a niche market -- 80% of homes sold last month sold for less than $300,000.

Split by region, the Census Bureau reports October's New Home Sales as follows :
  • Northeast Region : +0.0% from September 2011 
  • Midwest Region : +22.2% from September 2011 
  • South Region : -9.5% from September 2011 
  • West Region : -14.9% from September 2011 
Unfortunately, the data may be incorrect.

Although the October New Home Sales report says that sales climbed 1.3 percent last month, the government's data was published with a ±19.7% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +21.0 percent, or as low as -18.4 percent. Because the range of values includes both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its October data "zero confidence".

As home buyers, then, we can't take our market cues from the published data. Instead, we should look to other metrics including Housing Starts data and the aforementioned homebuilder confidence survey. Each points to strength in the new home market, and foretells higher home prices in 2012.

If you're in the market for new construction, consider writing an offer soon. Home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too -- a combination that keeps home payments low. Next year, that may not be the case.

Til next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Monday, November 28, 2011

Maximum FHA Loan Limits Restored To $729,750

FHA Loan Limits RestoredI want to thank all the Realtor's for expressing the need to keep the FHA Loan Limits intact. Here in New York City, home prices are above the national average. These higher limits are necessary to move the inventory of homes.  Without them, home buyers would need a larger down payment, and home sales would DROP.

After a brief return to lower, pre-2009 levels, FHA loan limits have been restored. As signed into law last Friday, maximum FHA loan limits are -- once again -- as high as $729,750.

The move creates additional mortgage financing possibilities in more than 650 U.S. counties, and promises to increase the FHA's mortgage market share, which has grown from 6% in 2007 to roughly 30% today.

The change in FHA loan limits also marks the first time that FHA loan limits exceed those of conventional mortgage-backers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Conventional loans remain capped at a maximum of $625,500.

For home buyers in New York City and nationwide, FHA-insured mortgage offer several advantages over comparable conventional loans, the most commonly cited of which is that FHA-insured loans require a down payment of just 3.5 percent.

FHA-insured mortgages carry other advantages, too, however.

First, FHA home loans are not subject to loan-level pricing adjustments (LLPA). This means that, all things equal, buyers and would-be refinancers with credit scores below 740; or, who live in multi-unit homes; or, who have high loan-to-values are not subject to additional loan fees as a conventional mortgage applicant might.

Second, after 6 months of on-time payments, FHA-backed homeowners are eligible for the FHA Streamline Refinance. The FHA Streamline Refinance is among the simplest loan products for which to qualify with no appraisal required. Even if you're "underwater" on your mortgage, you can still be streamline-eligible.

And, lastly, at least in today's market, FHA mortgage rates are below those of the conventional market.

The downside of FHA financing, however, is that all FHA mortgages require mortgage insurance and FHA mortgage rates are often higher versus a comparable conventional loan. This means that, although its mortgage rate may be lower, the payment for an FHA home loan may be higher as compared to a Fannie Mae mortgage with similar credit traits.

FHA loans aren't always optimal, but with higher FHA loan limits, expect the FHA's market share to increase.
Check your local FHA loan limit at the HUD website.

Thanks for listening.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Friday, November 18, 2011

Housing Starts Rising; New Construction Turns The Corner?

Housing Starts (2009-2011)
Yesterday I gave you the Homebuilder' report. Today I present you with
the Housing Starts. Love those STATS.

Another day, another signal that the market for newly-built homes is improving.

Single-Family Housing Starts rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 430,000 units in October -- a 4 percent increase from September and the highest reading in 3 months.

A "Housing Start" is a home on which ground has been broken.
The increase in, surprised Wall Street analysts, although it shouldn't have.

Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders showed that Homebuilder Confidence is at its highest point since May 2010, the effect of better market conditions and more sold units. Rising housing starts amid a lift in builder confidence is to be expected -- the two metrics have moved with loose correlation since mid-2000.

However, as with everything in real estate, Single-Family Housing Starts volume varied by location. The nation's 4 regions posted wide-ranging results :
  • Northeast Region : + 10.0% from September
  • Midwest Region : -4.1% from September
  • South Region : +11.3% from September
  • West Region : -10.2% from September
Buyers of new construction in the New York City area can infer two key points from last month's data.

First, with more homes will being built, home supply should rise, thereby softening pressure on rising home prices. This should help keep homes affordable.

However, the second point is that, with builder confidence rising, buyers are less likely to win price concessions and "free upgrades" in negotiations.

The last 6 weeks of 2011 may be your optimal time to buy new construction. Home prices remain affordable and mortgage rates are rock-bottom. In addition, because there are typically fewer active home buyers during the holidays, you'll be more likely to locate one of the few remaining new construction "deals".

Talk to your real estate agent about local trends and new construction.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Homebuilders Getting Optimistic; Higher Home Prices Ahead?

Housing Market Index 2009-2011
Statistically Speaking. I do a lot of that, it keeps people informed of whats happening in a certain sector or a certain market. Data is very important for many reasons. Most importantly the TRENDS.

Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.

Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It's the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.

The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It's meant to measure confidence among the nation's homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.

When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.
As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current "foot traffic".

In November, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :
  • Current Single-Family Sales : 20 (+3 from October)
  • Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from October)
  • Buyer Foot Traffic : 15 (+1 from October)
And, beyond the headline data, there is an important, noteworthy item in this month's Housing Market Index.

In November, "Current Single Family Sales" climbed 3 points for the second straight month, and is now at the highest point since May 2010 -- the month after last year's home buyer tax credit expired. And, this increase in sales volume is occurring as new home construction is falling, thereby reducing home inventory nationwide.
That's an important point for New York  home buyers.

With more new home sales and fewer new home listings, prices are likely to increase into 2012. Especially with home builders predicting higher sales levels over the next 6 months, and seeing higher levels of buyer foot traffic through their properties today.

For now, though, home prices are stable and mortgage rates are low. This creates low-cost homeownership throughout New York , and helps new home construction remain affordable.

If you're in the market for new home construction, the next 60 days may prove to be your best time to get "a deal".

I would continue to follow the trends to be a smart housing consumer.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Government Releases Additional HARP Guidance For Underwater Homeowners

Making Home Affordabie

I am advocating for my UNDERWATER HOME OWNERS.
See if you qualify, follow the guidance.

Tuesday, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled lender instructions for the government's revamped HARP program, kick-starting a potential refinance frenzy across New York and nationwide.

HARP stands for Home Affordable Refinance Program. The updated program is meant to give "underwater homeowners" an opportunity to refinance at today's low mortgage rates.

In the two-plus years since its launch, HARP's first iteration helped fewer than 900,000 homeowners. HARP II, by contrast, is expected to reach millions.

Lenders begin taking HARP II loan applications December 1, 2011.
To apply for HARP, applicants must first meet 4 basic criteria :
  1. The existing mortgage must be guaranteed by Fannie Mae or by Freddie Mac
  2. The existing mortgage must have been securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac prior to June 1, 2009
  3. The mortgage payment history must be perfect going back 6 months
  4. The mortgage payment history may not include more than one 30-day late payment going back 12 months 
    If the above criteria are met, HARP applicants will like what they see.

    For HARP applicants, loan-level pricing adjustments are waived in full for loans with terms of 20 years or fewer; and maxed at 0.75 for loans with terms in excess of 20 years.

    This will result in dramatically lower mortgages rates for HARP applicants -- especially those with credit scores below 740. Some applicants will find HARP mortgage rates lower than for a "traditional" conventional mortgage.
    In addition, HARP applicants are exempted from the standard waiting period following a bankruptcy or foreclosure, which is 4 years and 7 years, respectively.

    These two items are inclusionary and should help HARP reach a broader U.S. audience.
    HARP contains exclusionary policies, too.
    1. The "unlimited LTV" feature only applies to fixed rate loans or 30 years or fewer. ARMs are capped at 105% loan-to-value.
    2. Applicants must be "requalified" if the proposed mortgage payment exceeds the current payment by 20%.
    3. Applicants must benefit from either a lower payment, or a "more stable" product to qualify
    And, of course, HARP can only be used once.

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will adopt slight variations of the same HARP guidelines so make sure to check with your loan officer for the complete list of HARP eligibility requirements.

    Should Fannie and Freddie be PRIVATIZED?

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse

    Tuesday, November 15, 2011

    Foreclosure Filings Climbing; 4 States Account For Half Of Nationwide Activity

    Foreclosures per capita October 2011



    Take notice with these statistics. It appears that the Shadow Inventory is being released, and more should come. Follow this trend and use your crystal ball. Give it 6 months to see the state of the housing market. If there isn't any improvement, we will see median home values trend lower. Fear not, eventually we will clear all this inventory. Did someone say "2020".

    Let's take a look at what we got.

    Foreclosed homes are a hot market throughout New York -- and supplies are ramping up.
    According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, October's foreclosure filings rose 7 percent to 231,000 filings nationwide.

    A "foreclosure filing" is any one of the following foreclosure-related events : A default notice on a home; a scheduled auction for a home; or, a bank repossession of a home. Because of this definition, a single home can account for up to 3 foreclosure filings -- one from each category.

    Because of this, we may glean more relevant insight into the foreclosure market by separating RealtyTrac's foreclosure report into "event types".
    • Default Notices : Up 10% from September 2011; Down 31% from October 2010.
    • Scheduled Auctions : Up 8% from September 2011; Down 38% from October 2010.
    • Bank Repossessions : Up 4% from September 2011; Down 27% from October 2010.
    These breakdowns suggest that, although improved as compared to last year, the foreclosure market is growing. At least, it's growing in some parts of the country. We can't forget that -- like everything real estate -- foreclosures are a local phenomenon.

    In October, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country's foreclosure filings. Those four states -- California, Florida, Michigan and Illinois -- represent just 26% of the U.S. population.
    Even on a per household basis, the figures remain disproportionate :
    • Top 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 341 households, on average
    • Bottom 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 7,434 households, on average
    The nationwide foreclosure rate was 1 foreclosure per 563 households.

    As a Brooklyn home buyer, foreclosures are worth watching. They account for 18% of home resales nationwide and, in some markets, can be bought at steep discounts versus a comparable "non-distressed" home. That is part of their appeal, in fact.

    But just because foreclosed properties can be a "deal", it doesn't mean you should rush to buy one. Buying a foreclosed home from a bank is different from buying a non-foreclosed home from a "person". The contracts and negotiation process are different, and foreclosed homes are sometimes sold as-is.

    "As-is" means "this home may have defects".

    Therefore, if you plan to buy a foreclosed home, talk with a real estate professional first. You can learn a lot about the housing market online, but with respect to writing an offer on a property, you'll want an experienced agent on your side.

    Distressed properties are complicated. The road is long and winding. Don't go it alone.

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse

    Monday, November 14, 2011

    Using Space Heaters? Use This Safety Advice.

    Space heater safety tips
    Safety advice you want? Safety advice you will get. Don't use them, their dangerous.  Space Heaters can kill.

    The NYC Borough's are dense with people, basement apartments and attic apartments, you name it, they are packed.

    Space heaters are popular among homeowners in the  populated area of the NYC Boroughs because, as portable appliances, they can heat a small space quickly and inexpensively. It requires less energy to run a space heater than to raise the temperature of an entire home by a few degrees.

    However, space heaters can be dangerous, too.

    In its November 2011 report, the National Fire Protection Association reveals that heating equipment was involved in an estimated 58,900 home structure fires, 480 civilian deaths, 1,520 civilian injuries and more than $1.1 billion in damage.

    Space heaters caused a disproportionate percentage of the accidents :
    • 79% of all home heating-related civilian deaths 
    • 66% of all home heating-related civilian injuries 
    • 52% of all home heating-related property damage
    If you use space heaters, therefore, please remember to read (and follow) the manufacturer's instructions for proper usage, and to obey basic safety standards.

    First, never place anything flammable within three feet of a space heater. Space heaters get very hot, very quickly and can ignite rugs, paper and curtains.

    Next, make sure your space heater is placed on the floor, on level ground. Do not rest it on books, or on furniture.

    Also, make sure to turn space heaters off when leaving a room, or when going to bed. Space heaters are not meant to replace whole-home heating and should not be left unattended under any circumstance.

    The Underwriters Laboratory makes a list of general safety tips available on its website. Considering how much damage space heaters can cause, the list is worth committing to memory.

    This is good nursing advice.

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse

    Friday, November 11, 2011

    Banks Resume Tightening Mortgage Guidelines

    Mortgage guidelines get tougher
    Ben Bernanke is asking questions. ????

    As part of its quarterly survey to member banks nationwide, the Federal Reserve asked senior loan officers whether last quarter's "prime" residential mortgage guidelines have tightened, loosened, or remained as-is.

    A "prime" borrower is defined as one with a well-documented, high-performance credit history; with low debt-to-income ratios; and who chooses to finance a home via a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage product.

    After a 2-year easing cycle, the nation's biggest bank banks report that they've reversed course, and are raising the bar on mortgage approvals.

    For the period July-September 2010, 88% of responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them "basically unchanged".

    If you've applied for a home loan of late, you've experienced this first-hand.

    High delinquency rates and defaults since 2007 have caused the banks to rethink what they will lend, and to whom. As a result, today's mortgage lenders scrutinize assets, incomes, and credit scores to make sure that nothing "slips by".

    For today's home buyers and would-be refinancers, the mortgage approval process can be challenging as compared to how it looked just 18 months ago.
    • Minimum credit scores requirements are higher today
    • Downpayment/equity requirements are larger today
    • Debt-to-Income ratio requirements are more strict today
    In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest that they've been in history, fewer applicants can qualify. And, with more the housing market still in recovery, it's likely that guidelines will tighten again in 2012.

    Therefore, if you're among the many people in Queens wondering if it's the right time to buy a home or refinance, consider that, although mortgage rates may fall, approval standards may not.

    The best rate in the world won't matter if you're not eligible to lock it.

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse

    Tips For Maximizing Your Home's Appraised Value

    Maximizing your home appraisalGo the extra mile and support your Home Appraisal. It is very valuable to you,
    and you want to give the best impression yo can. Don't bleed equity.

    A home appraisal is an independent opinion of your home's value, performed by a licensed home appraiser. Appraisals are part of the traditional home purchase process, and lenders require them for most refinances, too.

    Appraisers are trained professionals. First, they derive a base for your home's value based on the recent sales prices of homes that are comparable to yours in terms of bedrooms, bathrooms, style, and square footage.

    Then, accounting for features and amenities that make your home different, the appraiser applies "adjustments" to that base value.

    This methodology is called the "Sales Comparison" approach and the result is your home's appraised value.

    It's the most common appraisal method used by lenders.

    As a homeowner in New York City , you can't affect the sales prices of your home's comparable properties, but you can help your appraiser understand how your home stands apart from these homes. This, in turn, can affect your home's adjustments, resulting in a higher appraised value.

    With home appraisals, every valuation dollar can matter. With that in mind, here are a few tips for maximizing your home's appraised value :
    1. Be home for your appraisal so you can answer the appraiser's question, if there are any.
    2. Mention any new roofing, flooring, HVAC, plumbing, or windows you've installed since purchase.
    3. Don't mention projects or repairs you're "about to undertake". Appraisers don't credit for unfinished projects.
    4. Make minor household fixes prior to the appraisal (e.g.; leaky sink, running toilet, peeling paint). 
    5. Present a tidy home. This can contribute to a higher "overall condition" adjustment.
    Lastly, schedule the appraisal for a time that is convenient for your entire household. An appraiser needs to see, measure, and take photos of every room in your home. If a room's door is closed because of a resting child, for example, the appraiser may need to schedule a second appointment to complete the appraisal, and that can raise your appraisal costs.

    Imagine what you would want your home to look like before the Appraiser gets there. That's the idea I am trying to convey to you. Clean it up. Tidy, Tidy and Neat.

    Till next time

    The New York real Estate Nurse

    Monday, November 7, 2011

    The Most Expensive ZIP Codes In The Country (2011 Edition)

    Most Expensive ZIP CodesDo you live among the rich? Are you in the CODE? If not. Time to get in and spend those millions on a reduced fixer-upper. "Moving on up, to the East-side" deluxe apartment. You get the idea? Just ask George.

    In the housing market, amenities and location have as much to do with a home's value as the everyday forces of supply-and-demand. Whereas the latter causes home values to rise and fall over time, the former creates a starting point for said values.

    Where you live -- and the features of your home -- determine your home's price range. Naturally, homes in some areas are consistently higher-valued than homes in others.

    Using data compiled by real estate market data firm Altos Research, Forbes Magazine presents America's 10 most expensive ZIP codes. California and the New York Metro area dominate the list.
    1. Alpine, NJ (07620) : $4,550,000
    2. Atherton, CA (94027) : $4,295,000
    3. Sagaponack, NY (11962) : $3.595,000
    4. Hillsborough, CA (94010) : $3,499,000
    5. Beverly Hills, CA (90210) : $3,469,891
    6. New York, NY (10012) : $3,392,574
    7. New York, NY (10013) : $3,317,962
    8. Water Mill, NY (11976) : $3,300,000
    9. Montecito, CA (93108) : $3,099,348
    10. Old Westbury, NY (11568) : $3,095,000
    In fact, of the top 50 most expensive ZIP codes, only 6 are located outside of California and New York regions. 3 are Colorado resort towns -- Snowmass (81654), Aspen (81611) and Telluride (81435) -- one is in Maryland, one is in Florida, and the last is in Washington State.

    Chicago-suburb Kenilworth (60043) is the top-ranked Midwest ZIP code. It placed 86th overall.

    The Forbes list may be interesting but, to home buyers or sellers in New York , it should not be the final word in home values. Real estate is a local market which means that -- even within a given ZIP code -- prices can vary based on street and neighborhood.

    Look past general data and get specific. Talk to your real estate agent for local market pricing.

    Go shopping and kick those tires.

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse

    Your Home Has A Smoke Detector. Are You Sure It's Really Working?

    Smoke tests offer more safetyNow is the time to check your smoke alarms and carbon monoxide alarms. Daylight Savings Time has arrived and its a reminder for us to check our smoke alarms and also time to change the batteries.

    An estimated 356,000 in-home fires caused more than $7 billion in U.S. residential property damage in 2009, according to data from the United States Fire Administration.

    The fires caused more than 12,000 injuries, and killed more than 2,500 people in queens and nationwide.

    Unfortunately, many of affected homes did have smoke detectors -- they just weren't working properly. This is why it's critically important to test your home's smoke detectors at least once annually.

    When you test a smoke detector, you're making sure that the alarm will trigger in the event of a real-life fire. A proper test will confirm that the batteries have useful life, and that the device's smoke detection components are operating as expected.

    To test your smoke detector, here's what to do :
    1. Make a checklist of your home's smoke detectors
    2. Go to the first smoke detector
    3. Ask a helper to go to the farthest point from the detector within your home
    4. Press the smoke detector's testing button up to 10 seconds to activate the alarm
    5. Confirm with your helper that the alarm could be heard from his/her location
    6. Note on the checklist whether the smoke detector worked, or needs replacement
    You can also take your test a step further.

    Just because the smoke detector's alarm can be heard from the farthest point in your house doesn't mean that the alarm will sound in the event of a real fire. Therefore, you may want to buy a "smoke test".

    Smoke tests are aerosol cans that simulate a bona fide in-home fire. You can buy them for less than $15 at your local hardware store, or at Amazon.com. If your smoke detector fails to sound its alarm in the presence of a "real fire", make sure you replace it right away.

    I want you to feel safe and stay safe. Simple things to do.

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse

    Thursday, November 3, 2011

    A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 2, 2011 Edition)

    Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishThey did nothing. In my opinion, they see light at the end of the tunnel. They didn't say they were purchasing any quantities of Mortgage Backed Securities. They are sticking to their dual mandate of employment and inflation. They are ready to act if needed.

    Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

    The vote was nearly unanimous, with just one dissenting voter. There were 3 dissenters at each of the FOMC's last two meetings.

    In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented an improved outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in September, there's new evidence that the economy "strengthened somewhat" in the third quarter.

    One example cited is that consumer and business spending continues to rise while inflationary pressures on the economy remain modest. This indicates controlled growth -- a plus in a recovering economy.  
    The economy remains slowed by a number of factors, though, as noted by the Fed :
    1. "Continuing weakness" in the labor market
    2. Softness in commercial real estate
    3. A "depressed" housing market
    In response to mixed economic conditions, the FOMC opted to "do nothing" today; it introduced no new monetary policy, and revised none of its existing market stimulus. The Fed re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent "at least until mid-2013″ and affirmed "Operation Twist" -- the program in which the Fed sells Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and uses the proceeds to buy mortgage bonds with maturity between 6 and 30 years.

    Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been negative this afternoon. Mortgage rates throughout New York are rising because analysts expected the Fed to launch new, bigger stimulus plans. It didn't. Rates may drift higher for the next few days, too.

    Therefore, it today's mortgage rates fit your household budget, consider locking in a mortgage rate. Mortgage rates are very low right now, relative to history. It may not last. I tend to think they will remain low in a range.

    The FOMC's next meeting -- its last scheduled meeting of the year -- is December 13, 2011.

    I can only hope for economic improvement. Time will tell.

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse

    Wednesday, November 2, 2011

    More Risk To Home Affordability : Friday's Jobs Report

    Job growth since 2000

    What would I do? Lock, lock and double lock your rates today. It is always better to know what you have now, than later.

    Within the next 48 hours, mortgage rates may get bouncy. The Federal Open Market Committee will adjourn from a 2-day meeting and October's Non-Farm Payrolls report is due for release.

    Of the two market movers, it's the Non-Farm Payrolls report that may cause the most damage. Rate shoppers across new york would do well to pay attention.

    Published monthly, the "jobs report" provides sector-by-sector employment data from the month prior. It's a product of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and includes the national Unemployment Rate.

    In September, the economy added 103,000 jobs, and job creation from the two months prior was shown to be higher by 99,000 jobs higher than originally reported. This was a huge improvement over the initial August release which showed zero new jobs created.

    When September's jobs report was released, mortgage rates spiked. This is because of the correlation between jobs and the U.S. economy. There are a lot of economic "positives" when the U.S. workforce is growing.
    1. Consumer spending increases
    2. Governments start more projects
    3. Businesses make more investment
    Each of these items leads to additional hiring, and the cycle continues.
    Wall Street expects that 90,000 jobs were created in October 2011. If the actual number of jobs created exceeds this estimate, it will be considered a positive for the economy, and mortgage rates should climb as Wall Street dumps mortgage-backed bonds in favor of equities.

    Conversely, if the number of new jobs falls short of 90,000, it will be considered a disappointment, and mortgage rates should rise. There are many factors that have an effect on mortgage-backed securities. Joblessness is only one factor and there are many more. One thing for sure is that when our economy starts to thrive again, mortgage rate will rise as they have done historically.

    There is a lot of risk in floating a mortgage rate today. The Federal Reserve could make a statement that drives rates higher, and Friday's job report could do the same. If you're under contract for a home or planning to refinance, eliminate your interest rate risk.

    Lock your mortgage rate today. As I would.

    Till next time

    The New York Real Estate Nurse