Pending Home Sales Index Posts Second Best Month Since April 2010

After 3 consecutive months of growth, the housing market appears to have eased a bit in December. The trend remains flat over a longer period of time. We are undulating.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, December's Pending Home Sales Index slipped 4 percent from the month prior. The index measures the number of homes under contract to sell nationwide, but not yet sold.

Despite falling below its benchmark "100 value", December's Pending Home Sales Index is the reading's second-highest value since April 2010 -- the last month of last year's home buyer tax credit program.

In other words, the housing market continues to show signs of improvement, propelled by low home prices and the cheapest mortgage rates of all-time.

Freddie Mac's mortgage rate survey put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at an average of 3.96% in December -- a 75-basis point improvement from December 2010. This helps to make homes more affordable nationwide.

On a regional basis, December's Pending Home Sales Index varied :

• Northeast Region: -3.1 percent from November 2011
• Midwest Region : +4.0 percent from November 2011 
• South Region : -2.6 percent from November 2011
• West Region : -11.0 percent from November 2011

But even regional data is only so helpful. Like everything in real estate, data must be local to be relevant.

Throughout the West Region, for example, the U.S. region in which pending home sales fell the most, several states must have performed better than the regional average. And, undoubtedly, there were cities, towns, and neighborhoods that experienced marked market growth.

Unfortunately, the Pending Home Sales Index can't capture that data. Nor can it identify the markets in which home sales suffered. Let's wait for Case / Schiller to bring out the November score.

For today's Queens home buyers and sellers, therefore, it's important to understand your local market and the drivers of local activity. Reports like the Pending Home Sales Index can paint a broad picture U.S. housing but for data that matters to you, you'll want to look local.

For local real estate data, talk to an experienced real estate professional, like myself.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Foreclosure Filings Fall To 49-Month Low

Their are approximately 50 million mortgages. 10 million owe more than what their home is worth. Another 1.5 million mortgages are foreclosed. And not to complicate matters more, their are 2 million mortgages that have not been paid in the last 90 days. This is and will be compiled to the Shadow Inventory. The price killer we all fear.

Foreclosure filings are fewer these days, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. Due to Robo-Signing difficulties, these numbers are skewed. We have to wait and see how things work out. The states have to work through litigation, law suits, and all things legal.

In December 2011, the number of foreclosure filings nationwide fell 9 percent from the month prior. Not since November 2007 has foreclosure activity been this sparse across the country.

Last month's foreclosure filings were down 20 percent from December 2010 with "foreclosure filing” defined to include any one of the following foreclosure-related events : (1) The serving of a default notice, (2) A scheduled home auction, or (3) A bank repossession. As a result of a unexpectedly strong year-end, 2011's annual foreclosure rate was the lowest in 4 years.

One reason why the year may have closed so strongly is that Nevada, California, Michigan and Arizona -- four states typically associated with high rates of foreclosures -- each posted big drops in foreclosure filings between November and December, plus double-digit drops between December 2010 and December 2011.
 
In fact, among the country's top 10 states for foreclosure activity, nine showed an annual foreclosure filing reduction. Only Delaware worsened.

It’s also noteworthy that just 4 states accounted for half of last month's total foreclosure filings.

• California : 25.8 percent of all foreclosure filings
• Florida : 12.0 percent of all foreclosure filings
• Michigan : 6.4 percent of all foreclosure filings
• Illinois : 6.2 percent of all foreclosure filings

Foreclosures are heavily concentrated, in other words. By contrast, the last 1% of activity is spread across 14 states.

As a new york city home buyer -- first-timer or investor -- foreclosures can be a great way to find value.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, distressed homes typically sell at "deep discounts" as compared to like, non-distressed homes. However, when you buy a foreclosure home from a bank, it's different from buying a home from a "person". Purchase contract negotiations are different and months may pass before your closing is approved.

If you're buying foreclosure, therefore, seek the help of a professional real estate agent. Real estate agents have experience working in the process-heavy world of foreclosures and can help you come out ahead.

BUYER BEWARE. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT'S ALL I CAN SAY !!!!

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Will Home Values Rise This Year?

Noooooooooooooooooo!!! Home sales based on median price will show a decline in 2012. This will be the national trend, there will be a location here and there that will see upside off their lows.

ALL MARKETS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO COME OFF THEIR LOWS.

My crystal ball tells me their are to many headwinds in the countries macroeconomics to boost prices. Their are to many distressed properties on the market that nobody wants. When they are bought they will bring down comparable's with them.  The looming shadow inventory will have to be released at some point. Absorption of the units will take time.

Without the help of  government intervention, and the private sector having little incentive to get involved, at best we will see housing numbers remain the same this year. Still a good time to buy.

Will your home gain value over the next 12 months? Nobody can know for sure, but should recent housing trends continue undulating along the bottom, prices will be flat.

The housing economy has suffered since 2007, knocking home values down nearly 20% nationwide. And while some areas have fared better as compared to others but, in general, home values are down.

Mortgage rates are down, too, and that's good news for buyers in New York. The combination of low rates and low prices has led home affordability to an all-time high. As you'll hear in this 4-minute interview with NBC's The Today Show, carrying a mortgage costs 25% less per month as compared to just 3 years ago.

Some other notes from the interview include :

• There are more buyers out looking for homes today, which leads to more sales
• The housing market is expected to get gradually better, month-by-month, in 2012
• Foreclosures will continue to be a big part of the housing market

With housing supplies shrinking, buyers throughout New York may find their best "deals" today -- before the Spring Buying Season begins in February.

However, we can't forget that housing markets are local -- not national. Each town and neighborhood has its own market drivers and prices where you live may have already started to climb.

For accurate, up-to-date data on the housing market, talk with a local real estate agent.

My phone is ringing of the hook. Anybody remember those old phones?

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Could Retail Sales Data Push Mortgage Rates Higher?

U.S. Economist are forecasting a rise of 0.4-0.5 percent rise in U.S Retail Sales Data for December.

Consumer spending continues to rise nationwide, fueled by jobs growth and a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers it may also lead to higher mortgage rates later this week.

Thursday morning, the Census Bureau will release its U.S. Retail Sales data for December. The report is expected to show an 18th consecutive monthly increase, with analysts projecting sales volume higher by 0.4 percent from November.

This would be double the increase from last month, which saw a 0.2 percent increase in Retail Sales.

The Retail Sales report tallies receipts collected by retail and food-service stores nationwide. When the sum of these receipts rise, it puts pressure on mortgage rates to do the same. The connection is straight-forward.

Retail Sales are the largest part of "consumer spending" and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy -- up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

As the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

Remember: today's ultra-low mortgage rates have been partially fueled by weak economies -- both domestic and abroad -- going back 4 years. Stock markets have sold off as economies have faltered worldwide, leading investors to seek refuge in the relative safety of U.S.-backed mortgage bond market. The new-found demand for mortgage-backed bonds has helped drop mortgage rates to levels never seen in history.

When economic recovery is apparent, therefore, we should expect a mortgage rate reversal, and should expect for it to happen quickly. Stock markets should rise; bond markets should fall. Mortgage rates will climb. Rate shoppers will lose.

Last week's strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy. If Thursday Retail Sales data reveals similar strength, the risk in "floating" your mortgage rate may be too great. The safer play is to lock your rate today.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

WHAT TIME IS IT? 08:30 AM EST.

DRUM ROLL PLEASE------------------------- The report says 0.1% increase in December Sales compared to the 0.2% increase in November Sales. We have failed to march forward. Mortgage rates will remain low for some time to come. Now you have the answer to the Article's question.

Thanks for playing along.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are A Relative Bargain Today

Financing a flip? Adjust away, and that maybe just the way to finance it.
Always run the numbers for your situation. Low fixed rates won't make you sweat when the economic winds are not blowing your way.

For buyers and refinancing households throughout New York , adjustable-rate mortgages are a relative bargain as compared to fixed-ones.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of more than 125 banks nationwide, New York City mortgage applicants electing for a conventional ARM over a conventional fixed-rate mortgage will save 105 basis points on their next mortgage rate.

"Conventional" loans are loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
Today's average, conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is 3.91% plus points and closing costs. The average rate for a comparable 5-year ARM is 2.86%, plus points and closing costs.

In other words, for every $100,000 borrowed, a conventional 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage will save you $58.15 per month, or $698 per year.

That's a 12 percent savings just for choosing an ARM.
12 percent is a big figure that adds up over 5 years -- especially for households that plan to sell within those first 60 months anyway. There is little sense in paying the mortgage rate premium for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage when a 5-year ARM is perfectly suitable.

For the reason why adjustable-rate mortgages are so much lower than their fixed-rate counterparts, look no further than the U.S. economy. ARMs reflect Wall Street's short-term economic expectations; whereas fixed-rate mortgages reflect medium- to long-term expectations.

In the short-term, analysts expect the U.S. economy to grow slowly, with low levels of inflation. This supports the U.S. dollar, the currency in which mortgage bonds are denominated. When the dollar is strong, demand for mortgage bonds tends to increase. This supports lower interest rates.

Conversely, over the longer-term, inflation is expected to return, which devalues the dollar and everything paid in it (e.g.; mortgage-backed bonds). This is why inflation is linked to higher mortgage rates. When inflation is present in the economy, mortgage bonds lose value, driving mortgage rates up.

Adjustable-rate mortgages aren't perfect for everyone, but in the right situation, they can be a big money-saver and a helpful tool for stretching a household budget. Given today's rates, the money-saving potential is larger than usual.

Before you choose an ARM, discuss your options with your loan officer.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Housing And Mortgage : The Experts Make Their 2012 Predictions

My Crystal Ball tells me that housing will get better in 2012. It will be good for Buyers. I hope I'm not going out on a limb saying this. Will I lose a limb if my prediction is wrong? Buyers have a leg up.

Being an amateur economist, I could use statistical data and ruin my prediction. We could see the Fed. to the rescue this year and drive mortgage rate lower, and we could see the banks get some type of incentive from Pres.Obama to lend.

What we need are jobs and higher salaries.

Thank God its a Crystal Ball and not some pure rational qualitative and quantitative design. But its belongs to me and nobody else.

As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.

Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who's right and who's wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals "experts" with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It's tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some "on-the-record" predictions for 2012 :

• Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
• Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker) 
• Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (ays the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers in Queens, New York and nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a "prediction" from fact at times.

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we're inclined to believe what we read and hear.
This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future -- whether it's housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else -- are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.

Predictions are guesses about what might come next -- nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today's market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions in and around Queens and nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates "with points" price in the 3s.

What 2012 has in store for us, we just can't know. But I will say this: Buy, Buy,and Buy.
Its a good time.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Nationally, Home Prices Off 18.3 Percent From April 2007 Peak

The government confirms what the private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported yesterday. Nationwide, average home values slipped in October.

The Federal Home Finance Agency's Home Price Index shows home values down 0.2% on a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis. October marks just the second time since April that home values fell month-over-month.

The Case-Shiller Index 20-City Composite showed values down 0.7 percent from September to October.

As a home buyer in new york city , it's easy to look at these numbers and think housing markets are down. Ultimately, that may prove true. However, before we take the FHFA's October Home Price Index at face value, we have to consider the report's flaws.

There are three of them -- and they're glaring. As we address them, it becomes clear that the Home Price Index -- like the Case-Shiller Index -- is of little use to everyday buyers and sellers in places like Queens, New York.

First, the FHFA Home Price Index only tracks home values for homes backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages. This means that homes backed by the FHA, for example, are specifically not computed in the monthly Home Price Index.

In 2007, this was not as big of an issue as it is today. in 2007, the FHA insured just 4 percent of the housing market. Today, the FHA is estimated to have more than one-third of the overall housing market.

This means that one-third of all home sales are excluded from the HPI -- a huge exclusion.

Second, the FHFA Home Price Index excludes new home sales and cash purchases, accounting for home resales backed by mortgages only. New home sales is a growing part of the market, and cash sales topped 29 percent in October 2011.

Third, the Home Price Index is on a 60-day delay. The above report is for homes that closed in October. It's nearly January now. Market momentum is different now. Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales have been rising; homebuilder confidence is up; Housing Starts are showing strength. In addition, the Pending Home Sales Index points to a strong year-end.

The Home Price Index doesn't capture this news. It's reporting on expired market conditions instead.

For local, up-to-the-minute housing market data, skip past the national data. You'll get better, more relevant facts from a local real estate agent.

Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA's Home Price Index is off 18.3 percent.

Not bad, their has been improvement. Undulating along the bottom is better than poorer housing data. We will see improvements in 2012. Opportunities due exist.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse