Pending Home Sales Index Crosses The 100 Barrier

We are selling more homes. Many reasons account for this:

1. prices are cheaper
2. mortgages are cheaper
3. rents are higher
4 distressed sales account for a large number of home sales
5. more buyers are testing the waters
6 deals like this won't last

May I say more? It is time to buy, and not because I work in the industry. Economics people, economics of our time.

After a series of worse-than-expected data last month, the housing market appears to be back on track.

The Pending Home Sales Index posted 101.4 in March, a four percent gain from the month prior and the index's highest reading since April 2010 -- the last month of that year's federal home buyer tax credit.

A "pending home" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The Pending Home Sales Index is tracked and published by the National Association of REALTORS® monthly.

The March report marks the index's first 100-plus reading in nearly two years.

To home buyers and sellers throughout New York , this is statistically significant because the Pending Home Sales Index is normalized to 100, a value corresponding to the average home contract activity in 2001, the index's first year of existence. 2001 was an historically-strong year for the housing market.

The March 2012 Pending Home Sales Index, therefore, puts current market activity on par with market activity from 2001.

You wouldn't know it from reading this week's papers, though. There have been stories about how the Case-Shiller Index put home values at new loans; and how the Existing Home Sales figures unexpectedly dropped off; and how the New Home Sales report was a laggard.

But this is why the Pending Home Sales Index can be so important.

What makes the Pending Home Sales Index different from those other data points is that the Pending Home Sales Index is a "forward-looking" housing market indicator.

Unlike most data which aims to tell us how the housing market performed at some point in the past, the Pending Home Sales Index attempts to tell us how the housing market will perform at some point in the future.

80% of homes under contract close within 2 months. Many more close within months 3-4. Therefore, on the strength of the March Pending Home Sales Index, we should expect a strong April and May nationwide.

If you're shopping for homes right now, consider taking advantage while the market remains somewhat soft. Mortgage rates are low and home prices are, too. It can make for a good home-buying conditions.

Everything is local, just like me. I know how much your house is worth. All you have to do is ask me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Till next time

THE NEW YORK REAL ESTATE NURSE^sm  

Nevada Relinquishes "Top Foreclosure State" Title

Is a sign of life approaching the national housing market? Lets just wait and see.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings fell to 199,000 in March 2012, a 17 percent decrease from March 2011. Last month marks the first time since July 2007 that foreclosure filings numbered less than 200,000 on a monthly basis -- a span of nearly 5 years.

The generic term "foreclosure filing" is used to group all types of foreclosure activity into a single reading. It includes default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions.

As in most months, foreclosure density varied by region. 6 states accounted for more than half of the nation's repossessed homes in March.

• Florida : 13.6 percent of all bank repossessions
• California : 12.0 percent of all bank repossessions
• Georgia : 8.0 percent of all bank repossessions
• Michigan : 7.5 percent of all bank repossessions
• Arizona : 6.5 percent of all bank repossessions
• Illinois : 6.4 percent of all bank repossessions

At the other end of the spectrum, North Dakota and Washington, D.C. were home to the fewest bank repossessions, with 0.03% and 0.02% of the national total, respectively.

Also noteworthy is that the RealtyTrac report revealed that Nevada relinquished its title as Top Foreclosure State after 62 consecutive top-ranking months. In March, 1 in every 301 Nevada homes received some form of a foreclosure filing. The March rate was a nation-topping 1 in 300 in neighboring Arizona.

For Queens home buyers, today's foreclosure market represents an interesting opportunity.

Homes purchased while in the various stages of foreclosure can often be bought at lower prices relative to homes not in foreclosure. It's one of the reasons why foreclosed homes now account for 20 percent of all home resales.

However, don't confuse less expensive for less costly.

Foreclosed homes are often sold "as-is" and may be in various stages of disrepair. Fixing a foreclosed home to make it habitable could wipe out the money saved on its price tag. Your best real estate "deal", therefore, may be a non-distressed home in sound, move-in ready condition.

If you're buying foreclosures -- or even considering it -- be sure to talk with a real estate agent first. The process of buying a foreclosed property is different from buying a "regular" home. You'll want somebody experienced on your team.

Buyer beware, don't get in over your head (wallet).

Till next time

THE NEW YORK REAL ESTATE NURSE^sm  

Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 4%

Rates remain low. Go get them and remember to tell your grandchildren how low rates were back when.

You lived through the Sub Prime Mortgage Era and the Great Securitization Period. I made that up, please do not copy this phrase. Copy right is not allowable. It's mine and all mine.

After a brief run-up two weeks ago, mortgage rates are back below 4 percent. It's good news for home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers of Queens because with lower mortgage rates come lower mortgage payments.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national, average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 3.99 percent this week from last week's 4.08 percent.

Last week had marked the first time since December 2011 that the benchmark rate crossed north of 4 percent -- a span of 16 weeks.

And, it wasn't just rates that got cheaper this week -- closing costs dropped, too.

Freddie Mac's survey showed that the average number of discount points to accompany a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell one-tenth of a percent this week to 0.7, where one discount point is equal to one percent of your loan size.

As a real-life example, a $200,000 Queens mortgage with an accompanying 0.7 discount points would be subject to an additional $1,400 one-time closing cost. Last week, that cost was $1,600.

Note, though, that these are average mortgage rates for the nation. On a local level, rates may be higher or lower, and so may the accompanying number of discount points.

For example, in this week's Freddie Mac survey, each U.S. region boasts its own "average rate" :

• Northeast Region : 4.00% with 0.7 discount points
• West Region : 3.94% with 0.9 discount points
• Southeast Region : 4.01% with 0.8 discount points
• North Central Region : 3.99% with 0.6 discount points
• Southwest Region : 4.02% with 0.8 discount points

These rates are each well below the average rates of a year ago when the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.86%.

Low mortgage rates can't last forever so if you've been wondering whether now is a good time to buy a home or refinance one; or whether rising rates will harm your monthly budget, the answer may be yes. A weak economy held mortgage rates low last year. An improving economy should push rates higher this year.

Talk to your loan officer and review your home loan options. Looking ahead to spring and summer, mortgage rates appear poised to rise.

I am not in the Mortgage business, I just write about Home Affordability.

Till next time

THE NEW YORK REAL ESTATE NURSE^sm