Homebuilder Confidence Rises on Surging Sales Volume, Foot Traffic

Wow Wow we hit 18, now were cooking. Maybe we should buy Homebuilder stocks and really get rich. Don't call your Stock Broker yet.

It is a better number statistically and that's it. We have poor economic conditions to move this above the favorable threshold of 50 on the HMI.

Just one month after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index rebounded four points to 18 for October. It's the highest reading for the HMI since May 2010 -- the month after last year's homebuyer tax credit expiration.

The Housing Market Index is published monthly by the National Association of Homebuilders and is scored on a scale of 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The index has been below 50 since May 2006 -- a 66-month streak.

The Housing Market Index is a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to home builders each month. Builders are asked about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current "foot traffic".

In October, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

• Current single-family sales : 18 (+4 from September)
• Projected single-family sales : 24 (+7 from September)
• Buyer foot traffic : 14 (+3 from September)

Meanwhile, of particular interest to today's New York City home buyers is that builders expect volume to surge over the next two seasons. And, with current sales volume rising and foot traffic strengthening, the fall and winter months could be strong ones in the new homes market.

In addition, the builder trade group press release states that rising costs for materials are squeezing building profit margins.

For buyers, it all adds up higher home prices ahead. As builders grow more confident about the housing market, they're less likely to make concessions on pricing or upgrades. Rising building costs fortify that argument. The "great deal" will be tougher to negotiate.

At least mortgage rates are low.

Low mortgage rates are keeping homes affordable in New York and Nationwide. If you're looking for the right time to buy new construction, therefore, this month may be it or not.

Try not to get caught up into reading the monthly housing reports. They are flat and undulating along the so called bottom.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Foreclosure Rate Drops For The 12th Straight Month

Hip Hip Hooray, or not. Shadow Inventory has to be taken into consideration. There is a lot out there. The Robo Signing has slowed defaults. So are future numbers in Alice in Wonderland?

Only time will tell. Wait and see. What do you mean? I can't have it now. I want to know. Don't we all.

Foreclosure activity continues to slow throughout the United States.

According to data from RealtyTrac, a national foreclosure-tracking firm, the number of foreclosure filings dipped below 215,000 in September 2011, a 6 percent decrease from August.

A "foreclosure filing" is defined as any foreclosure-related action including Notice of Default, Scheduled Auction, or Bank Repossession.

September marks the 12th straight month in which foreclosure filings fell year-over-year.

There are several reasons why foreclosure filings are down, including an increase in the amount of time it takes banks to move a foreclosure through its pipeline. It now takes a nationwide average of 336 days from the date of initial default notice to bank repossession.

Some states work quicker than others, however, because of a combination of state law and personnel.
Homes in New York take an average of 986 days to foreclose, for example, the longest in the country. Homes in Texas foreclose the quickest, registering just 86 days.

As in prior months, bank repossessions remain concentrated by state. Just 6 states accounted for half of the country's REO last month:

• California : 16.6 percent
• Georgia : 8.5 percent
• Florida : 8.3 percent
• Texas : 6.2 percent
• Michigan : 6.1 percent
• Illinois : 5.2 percent

Collectively, these 6 states represent just 36 percent of the nation's population.

By contrast, the bottom 6 states were home to just 192 repossessions last month -- 0.3% of the national total. Those 6 states were Alaska, Wyoming, District of Columbia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont.

For home buyers in the New York City area , shopping for foreclosed properties can be an excellent way to get "a deal". Foreclosed homes typically sell at discounts as compared to "non-foreclosed" homes, but are often sold "as-is". This means that homes listed for sale may be defective or out-of-code.

Before placing a bid on a foreclosed home, make sure that you're represented by an experienced real estate professional. I am always available to entertain questions.

As I recall in early 2010, New York Foreclosures took about 531 days to repossess. If the above statistics are correct, we have almost doubled the time to stay in our homes without paying. What is more strategic than that?
Under-Water Home Owner's use this strategy in Judicial States.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Save Money By Preventing Water Heat Loss In Your Home

The winter season will be here before you know it. It is time to take action and reduce your cost of energy. We are all looking for a little savings where ever we can find it. Lets not waste water, our largest commodity out there.

How much energy is your home wasting on water?

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, water heating can account for 25% of a home's energy use. This is a substantial percentage, representing thousands of dollars per year in energy costs.

The good news is there are multiple ways to increase your home's energy-efficiency with respect to heated water.

The Department of Energy provides a list.

1. Reduce hot water usage : Fix leaks, install low-flow fixtures, and use high-efficiency clothes washers and dishwashers.
2. Lower the hot water temperature : 120ºF is ideal. Each 10ºF drop in temperature saves up to 5% and slows corrosion.
3. Insulate your water heater : A simple blanket wrap costs $25 and will save you up to 9% in costs
4. Insulate your water pipes : Water will be delivered 4ºF hotter which means lower energy use.
5. Install a timer : If your heater is electric, turn it off during non-peak hours such as overnight
6. Use greywater heat recovery systems : 90% of water's energy is typically lost down the drain.

Some of the above items are costly to implement, and others are inexpensive. Most can be handled without hiring a plumber, especially those items at the top of the list.

As a New York City area homeowner, take control. Apply these energy-saving, water-heating strategies and you'll not only save money each month, but you'll lengthen the useful life of your home's appliances and plumbing.

If you're in need a plumber referral, please ask.

TAKE CARE OF YOUR HOME, AS YOU WOULD YOUR BODY.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Retail Sales Expected To Rise; Mortgage Rates Should Rise, Too

I am not sure what the statistics will say, the trend is up. Talk to people on the street and the trend should be down. Consumers are still hurting from unemployment, high gasoline cost and every other commodity you need to buy. Just go shopping at your local grocery store and buy fruit, cha-ching!

Friday morning, the Census Bureau will release its Retail Sales figures for September. The report is expected to show an increase in gross receipts for the 15th straight month with analysts predicting a 0.6 percent increase from August.

The projected increase represents the largest jump in Retail Sales in six months and would likely lead mortgage rates higher for buyers in New York City and  Nationwide.

The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates is fairly straight-forward. Retail Sales are the majority component of "consumer spending" and consumer spending represents the majority of the U.S. economy -- up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

And, as the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

10 months ago, mortgage rates shot forward to start the year. This is because expectations were high for a strong economic rebound. Conforming and FHA rates crossed 5 percent at the time and were headed toward six.

By mid-April, though, it was clear that economic data was falling short of predictions. As a result, mortgage rates declined, kicking off the 2011 Refi Boom. Then, by August, on ongoing economic softness, mortgage rates in New York fell further, making new all-time lows.

Expectations for a recovery have returned. Rates are now rising.

Last week's strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy and investors have been voting with their dollars. Mortgage rates are now up 7 consecutive days and Friday's Retail Sales report could cement the trend.

If you're shopping mortgage rates today, there's risk in "floating". You may want to lock your rate before Friday's Retail Sales report drives rates even higher.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

I always suggest you lock your rate. It may not be for everyone. Risk management is part of everyday living.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Freddie Mac : Mortgage Rates Sub-4 Percent

Mortgage rates have dropped past 4 percent.

For the first time in more than 40 years, data from Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage falling below 4 percent, dropping to 3.94 percent nationwide.

It's the lowest average 30-year fixed reading in the survey's history.

In addition, Freddie Mac shows the 15-year fixed and 5-year ARM making new all-time lows, too, falling to 3.26% and 2.96%, respectively.

It's a great time to be shopping for a mortgage or buying a home in Queens. Because mortgage rates are dropping, housing payments are dropping, too. As compared to 8 months ago, for every $100,000 borrowed, homeowners now pay $66 less principal + interest each month.

On a $300,000 mortgage, that's $71,280 saved in 30 years.

Mortgage rates have been lower for several reasons, some of which include :

• U.S. economic growth has been slower-than-expected
• Uncertainty surrounds Greece and the Eurozone
• The Federal Reserve's "Operation Twist"

In general, demand for mortgage bonds has been high and that's caused mortgage rates to fall. It should be noted, however, that although the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell below 4 percent this week, the amount of discount points required to lock that rate rose by 10 basis points, or $100 per $100,000 borrowed.

Homeowners in New York are paying bigger fees for these lower rates. If you plan to move within a few years, these fees may wipe out your low-rate savings.

As you shop for a mortgage, pay attention to more than just rates. Low rates are great, but not when they come with high costs. Talk to your loan officer for help with making a plan than works for you.

Always shop around, check with more than 1 lender.  Run the numbers!!!

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Conforming Loan Limits Drop In High-Cost Areas

For homeowners in high-cost areas nationwide, conforming and FHA loan limits have dropped by as much as 14 percent.

Effective October 1, 2011, the temporary mortgage loan limits that allowed for non-jumbo loan sizes of up to $729,750 are no longer.

$729,750 is above the "normal" loan limit of $417,000.

The elevated limits were put in place in 2008 as the economy and financial sector entered its crisis. At the time, there was little private money to serve buyers and would-be refinancers whose loan sizes exceeded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's maximum $417,000 loan limits.

For most people whose loan sizes exceeded that threshold, mortgage financing was unavailable. There were no lenders to back the loan size.

This was of particular importance in places such as New York City, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. where home prices routinely top $1 million. For people in these areas, unless they had a downpayment that could lower their respective loan sizes to $417,000 or lower, mortgages were mostly unavailable.

Congress recognized this and, as a result, gave Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac temportary authorization to purchase and securitize home loans of up to $729,750 in value, depending on where the subject property was located.

The program helped housing, leading Congress to pass more permanent, location-specific loan limits. Later that same year, Congress passed the Housing and Recovery Act of 2009 which, in part, made high-cost loan limit pricing permanent, albeit at $625,500.

The $729,750 temporary limits expired Friday, September 30, 2011. Today, the maximum allowable conforming loan size is $625,500.

If you live in a high-cost area, therefore, take note. Mortgage rates may be low, but the amount of loan for which you qualify may be less than you expect, and you may find yourself ineligible.

The complete list of high-cost areas is available online. The New York City area, including Nassau and Suffolk counties are part of the "High Cost Area".  We should see little improvement in sales due to this regulatory change. Buyers will have to come up with bigger down payments. That's all folks.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Fall Fix-Ups For Your Home

It's October and the fall season has officially started. For homeowners throughout New York and nationwide, the change of season is a well-timed, "preventative maintenance" reminder.

As temperatures cool, there are a handful of do-it-yourself projects you should undertake in order to keep your home in tip-top shape through the winter. This 4-minute piece from NBC's The Today Show highlights just a few of them.

Calling it a "Fall Fix-Up Checklist", The Today Show's interview is fast-paced and wide-ranging. Some of the topics covered include :

• Pick up all fallen leaves to limit damage to grass and "critter" invasions
• Unclog gutters to protect windows and foundations
• Turn off outside water sources and remove water from pipes and hoses

The home-tip video also shares how to find air leaks in your home, and how to fix them. Reducing air leaks can lower your home's heating and cooling bills by thousands of dollars annually.

Although the highlighted projects are DIYs, you may feel more comfortable hiring a professional. Know your "handyman limits", and remain safe at all times.

Stay warm or cool where ever you live. Take care of your home.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse