Building Permits Rising Nationwide; Housing Starts To Follow

Single-Family Housing Starts fell for the second consecutive month, dropping to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 417,000 units in August 2011.

A "Housing Start" is defined as a home on which ground has broken.

We shouldn't put too much faith in the findings, however. Although housing starts were lower last month, as noted by the Census Bureau, the margin of error in the August Housing Starts report exceeded the actual result.

From the official report:

• August's Published Results : -1.4% from July 
• August's Margin of Error : ±10.3% from July

Therefore, August's Housing Starts may have actually increased by up to +8.9% from July, or it may have dropped as much as -11.7%. We won't know for sure until several months from now, after the Census Bureau has gathered more housing data.

One thing is certain, though -- the long-term trend in Housing Starts is "flat". There has been little change in new home construction since last summer.

The same can't be said for Building Permits.

Considered a pre-cursor to Housing Starts, Single Family Building Permits climbed 2.5 percent with a minuscule Margin of Error of ±0.9 percent.

As is common in real estate, results varied by region:

• Northeast : +3.3 percent from July
• Midwest : +6.3 percent from July
• South : -1.3 percent from July
• West : +11.3 percent from July

When permits are issued, 86 percent of them begin break ground within 60 days. Therefore, expect Housing Starts and new home inventory to rebound in the months ahead.

For now, housing remains steady. And, with mortgage rates at all-time lows, homebuyer purchasing power in an around the New York City area is higher than it's been in history. If you're in the process of shopping for a home, talk with your lender to plan your mortgage budget. Call your Realtor and plan your home purchase.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (September 21, 2011 Edition)

Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was 7-3 -- the second straight meeting at which the FOMC adjourned with as many 3 dissenters. Prior to that last meeting, there hadn't been 3 FOMC dissenters since 1992.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented a dour outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in August:

1. Economic growth "remains slow"
2. Unemployment rates "remain elevated"
3. The housing sector "remains depressed"

The Fed also said that there are "significant downside risks" to the economic outlook, tied to strains in the global financial markets.
 
The news wasn't all bad, however.

The Fed noted that business investment in equipment and software continues to expand, and that inflationary pressures on the economy appear to have stabilized. The Fed then re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent "at least until mid-2013". This means that Prime Rate -- the rate to which credit card rates and lines of credits are often tied -- should remain unchanged at 3.250 for at least another 2 years.
Furthermore, as expected, the Federal Reserve launched a market stimulus plan aimed at lowering long-term interest rates. The Fed will sell $400 billion in Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and use the proceeds to buy the same with maturity between 6 and 30 years.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been positive this afternoon. Mortgage rates in New York are improving, but note that Wall Street sentiment can shift quickly -- especially in a market that's as uncertain as this one.

If today's mortgage rates and payments fit your household budget, consider locking in a rate. Rates can change swiftly.

The FOMC's next meeting is a 2-day affair, scheduled for November 1-2, 2011.
They are out of bullets, what's a country to do.  More QE? Maybe its time to bite the bullet and tighten everybody's belt. Let the markets adjust to the new numbers and start over at par. Then maybe we will see some economic growth.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Homebuilder Confidence Stays Flat

Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.

Myself, I am late with the news. I am OK with the trend.

With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder's Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index's 12-month average.

The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It's the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder's business.

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today? 
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September's composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.

The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006.

With homebuilder confidence low -- and stagnant -- buyers of new homes in the New York City area should remain alert for "deals". Builders are more likely to offer free upgrades and other concessions to incoming buyers. The availability of such deals may increase as the seasons change and as the year comes to a close.
Low mortgage rates are making new homes attractive, too. Last week, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels of all-time. As compared to just 8 weeks ago, 30-year fixed rate mortgage payments are lower by 5 percent at all loan sizes, down $27 per month per $100,000 borrowed.

Things are getting cheaper, America is headed for stagflation. Anybody remember the 70's. What a decade!
The world is mired in debt and defaults could happen. Nobody could pay out on all the Swaps. Financial disaster all over again.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Improve Your Home's Air Quality

How healthy is the air in your home?

Just ask the Real Estate Nurse!

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, a common class of airborne toxins known as Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) is ruining indoor air quality, and causing some U.S. homeowners to become dizzy, asthmatic, and ill.

VOCs are gases emitted by certain, common household products, including paint and paint strippers, cleaning supplies, and copiers and printers -- even when the aforementioned products aren't in use. You can find VOCs "everywhere" because organic chemical compounds have become essential in everyday life.

VOCs are what give cars that "new car smell". They're also the cause of "Sick Building Syndrome".
As a homeowner in New York City area , VOCs in your home can make you sick. Therefore, the EPA advises homeowners to take the following steps to reduce VOC levels in their respective homes and improve and home air quality.

1. When using VOC-emitting products such as paints and paint thinners, keep a well-ventilated home.
2. Avoid purchasing cleaning supplies or paint in bulk. Buy only what you need.
3. Never mix household cleansers. It may yield unintended results.
4. Throw out "dry cleaning bags" as soon as possible. Most dry cleaning makes use of harmful VOCs.
5. Do not burn tobacco products inside your home. 

There are a half-dozen other recommendations, too. They're listed on the EPA website.
You can't remove VOCs from your home, but you can minimize their negative effects. And keep your household as healthy as possible.

I want you to feel better while living healthy in your home.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Annual Foreclosure Filings Down For 11th Straight Month

On an annual basis, foreclosure filings fell last month. As compared to August 2010, last month's foreclosure filings dropped 33 percent. "Foreclosure filing" is a catch-all term, comprising default notices; scheduled auctions; and bank repossessions.

The study was published by foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac and this month's report reveals a slowing rate of foreclosure within each of the Top 10 most foreclosure-heavy states.

All news is not good, however.

On a monthly basis, foreclosure filings spiked, led by a surge in default notices. Default notices made their biggest one-month jump since August 2007 on the way to a 9-month high last month. Default notices are the first step in the foreclosure process so this jump may foreshadow a large number of bank repossessions as foreclosures "make their way through the process".

It's also noteworthy that just 6 states housed half of the nation's bank repossessions last month.

• California : 18 percent of bank repossessions
• Florida : 8 percent of bank repossessions
• Georgia : 7 percent of bank repossessions
• Michigan : 6 percent of bank repossessions
• Texas : 6 percent of bank repossessions
• Arizona : 6 percent of bank repossessions

As a home buyer in the New York City area , foreclosures can save you money. The National Association of REALTORS® reports that distressed homes sell with typical discounts of 20 percent versus comparable, non-distressed homes. However, buying a home from a bank is a different process from buying a home from a "person". Contract negotiations are different and it can take months to finally close on a foreclosed home.
If you're buying a foreclosed, therefore, enlist the help of a professional real estate agent. Real estate agents can help you navigate the sometimes-complicated world of foreclosures, and help you come out ahead.

I have all the the distressed properties that are available in the 5 Boroughs and Long Island. I can tell you first hand that the buying process on these listings is not always smooth sailing. You need a Real Estate Agent to negotiate for you.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Capitalize On Low Interest Rates In Overlooked Places

It's no secret. Rates are low right now. And, it's not just mortgage rates, either -- all types of rates are scraping rock-bottom. Borrowing rates, lending rates and savings rates are at or near their all-time lowest levels.

As a homeowner in New York City , one way to capitalize on today's low rates is to apply to refinance your home. But there are other ways to take advantage, too.

In this 5-minute piece from NBC's The Today Show, you'll learn of a half-dozen ways to exploit the current rate environment, including:

• Refinance a car loan from a high rate to a low rate, for cheap, in an hour
• Balance transfers between credit cards with teaser rates lasting up to 20 months
• Move some savings to an "online" bank where savings rates are higher

The interview's theme is to examine both where you're spending and saving your money, and make sure you're doing what's best for your budget.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has pledged to hold the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000% until at least 2013. So long as the Fed Funds Rate is low, there will be places you can save.

Good luck in saving your hard earned money

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Starting To Adjust Higher

For the first time in a year, homeowners with adjusting mortgages are facing rising mortgage rates. The interest rate by which many adjustable-rate mortgages adjust has climbed to its highest level since September 2010, and looks poised to reach higher.

This is because of the formula by which adjustable-rate mortgage adjust.

Each year, when due for a reset, an adjustable-rate mortgage's rate changes to the sum of fixed number known as a "margin", and a variable figure known as an "index". For conforming mortgages, the margin is typically set to 2.250 percent; the index is often equal to the 12-month LIBOR.

LIBOR stands for the London Interbank Offered Rate. It's a rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
Expressed as a math formula, the adjusting ARM formula reads :

(New Mortgage Rate) = (2.250 percent) + (Current 1-Year LIBOR)

LIBOR has been rising lately, which explains why ARMs are adjusting higher as compared to earlier this year. There has been considerable stress on the financial sector and LIBOR reflects the uncertainty that bankers feel for the sector.

LIBOR last spiked after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 amid global financial fears. Analysts expect LIBOR to rise into 2012 because of bubbling concerns in the Eurozone.

Despite LIBOR's rise, though, most adjusting, conforming ARMs are still resetting near 3 percent. For this reason, homeowners with ARMs in New York may want to consider letting their respective loans adjust with the market.

This is because an adjusting mortgage rate near 3 percent may be better than what's available with a "fresh loan" -- even as 5-year ARMs rates make new all-time lows. Unlike a straight refinance to lower rates, an adjusting loan requires no closing costs, requires no appraisal, and requires no verifications.

So, if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage that's set to reset this season, don't rush to refinance it. Talk to your lender and uncover your options. Your best course of action may be to stay the course.

Regardless of what kind of mortgage loan you have, always maintain an eye on rates. You never know in today's
crazy economy what is going to happen. Also Congress is crazy too. Remember to vote.

Till next time

The New York Real Estate Nurse